制度变迁对中国经济增长的影响：参量选择与量化方法

On the Quantification of System Contribution to China's Economic Growth

制度变迁是一个激励水平和交易费用的动态变化过程,但由于直接衡量制度质量的参数——激励水平和交易费用——无法准确计算,因此,要测度制度及制度变迁进而实证分析制度变迁对经济增长的影响便存在难度。在这种情况下,国内许多学者用制度代理变量法来测度制度变迁的动态过程,继而量化分析制度变迁对中国经济增长的贡献。但是该方法在实际应用中存在指标选择混乱的问题:制度代理变量往往因作者的不同理解而有所不同;而且,所选代理变量是否是制度变量或制度变迁的"射影",分析结果是否具有信度.仍然值得认真考虑。将制度作为解释变量引入生产函数可能并非可取,因为,制度对经济增长具有间接动力作用,制度变迁只能是技术变迁的结果。而不是原因。因而,在建立生产函数时,制度因素可能不应作为"显性"变量或解释变量出现。对制度及制度变迁的这种理解,也提供了一种测度制度变迁增长作用或贡献率的原则,即可以采用类似于索洛"余值"的办法。资源配置制度、信用制度、产权制度、分配制度、企业制度是经济制度的基本构成因素,建议用这五个制度的变迁来考量中国经济制度变迁对经济增长的贡献。

This paper discusses the existing problems in the quantification analysis of system contribution to China＇s economic growth, holding that it is difficult to measure system and system changes and that system agent variables method might be a useful choice. However, there are some problems in the use of this method there are confusions in the selection of the agent variables. This paper suggests that five systems be used to examine the contribution of system changes to China＇s economic growth, which are resources allocation system, credit system, property right system, distribution system and firm system. This paper also questions the introduction of system variables to production function with the point of view that system and system changes are not the direct motive of economic growth; in stead, system and system changes exert impact on economic growth indirectly. Therefore, system factors should not be used as variables in production function. This paper suggests that Solow-type analysis the Solow Remain method be used in measuring the contribution of system changes to economic growth.