论经济长期稳定增长前提下的人民币汇率改革

The Reform of RMB Exchange Rate Regime under the Premise of Long-term Stable Economic Growth

本文首先提出人民币汇率改革应明确一个前提:人民币汇率政策的目标是,使汇率服务于我国经济长期稳定增长的需要。在具体分析了人民币汇率与几大宏观经济目标的关系后,接下来阐述了人民币汇率改革的方向:一是在汇率形成机制上,随着我国金融体制改革的不断深化,逐步加大人民币汇率的浮动弹性,实现真正的以市场供求为基础的有管理的浮动汇率制度;二是在汇率水平上,与我国经济增长相伴随,实现人民币汇率水平的稳中有升。本文进一步探讨了人民币汇率改革的阶段性目标。最后,针对当前人民币汇率改革面临的问题,笔者提出了相关政策建议,以求实现更为合理的人民币汇率形成机制,从而为人民币汇率改革长期目标的实现打下基础。

The article clears up one point at first： the RMB exchange rate regime is to meet the need of China＇s economic growth. After analyzing the relationship between RMB exchange rate and several major macroeconomic objectives, the article points out the direction of RMB exchange rate reform. First, we should gradually increase the flexihility of RMB exchange rate. Second, we should allow RMB to appreciate steadily. Furthermore, the article discusses the targets in different stages of reform. Finally, the author puts forward some proposals aimed at building a solid foundation for long-term RMB exchange rate reform.