我国商业银行存贷利差的影响因素与演变趋势分析

Affecting Factors and Development Trend of China's Commercial Banks' Interest Margins

我们对中外银行业的利差水平进行比较后发现我国商业银行的利差水平较低。邓宁的投资发展路径理论I(DP)给我们提供了研究利差(SP)与人均国民生产总值(PGNP)之间相关性的理论依据。研究发现,人均国民生产总值是影响利差变化的重要变量,并且随着人均国民生产总值的变化,利差与其呈开口向上的二次函数关系。因此可能存在一个伴随人均国民生产总值变化的利差演变路径,而我国正处于利差水平逐步上升的演变阶段,今后一段时间我国商业银行利差水平还将持续上升。

An international comparison of banks＇ interest margins shows that China＇s commercial banks＇ interest margin is relatively narrower. Dunning＇s IDP （Investment Development Path）theory provides theoretical foundation for the research on relativity between interest margins and GNP Per Capita. Study shows that GNP Per Capita is an essential variable affecting the change of interest margin, which presents a quadratic function relation with the changing GNP Per Capita. Therefore there may be a development path of interest margins as China＇s GNP Per Capita increases. And since China is on the development stage, the climbing interest margin should keep climbing in the future.