公路路基沉降灰色预测方法之探讨

Discussion of grey prediction on roadbed settlement

根据公路路基沉降规律和GM(1,1)模型单调指数变化的特性,提出了对原始数列进行分析,合理选择GM(1,1)模型或灰色Verhulst模型。若原始数列处于快速沉降阶段,宜选用GM(1,1)模型;若原始数列处于沉降饱和阶段,宜选用灰色Verhulst模型,并用数学方法证明了灰色Verhulst模型的合理性。

Based on the rule of roadbed settlement and the characteristic of monotone exponential variety of GM（ 1, 1 ） , the original array is analyzed and reasonable GM（ 1, 1 ） or Grey Verhulst model is selected in this paper. If the original array is in the stage of rapid settlement, GM（ 1, 1 ） is more appropriate than Grey Verhulst Model; if the original array is in the tendency of saturation, the latter is better and its rationality of applying in the roadbed settlement is proved by the method of mathematics.