摘要
气候变化问题已成为国际社会高度关注的热点,中国作为世界上第二大CO2排放国,正面临着越来越严峻的减排压力。在讨论Kaya恒等式及其政策涵义的基础上,利用修改后的Kaya恒等式对1971-2005年期间中国的CO2排放进行了无残差分解,并结合宏观经济背景的变迁对从"四五"到"十五"计划期间的排放变化展开详细分析,结果表明经济的快速发展和人口的增长是CO2排放增加的主要驱动因素,能源效率的提高有利于减少CO2排放,而能源结构的低碳化则是降低CO2排放水平的重要战略选择,最后强调指出加快产业结构调整、发展高能效技术以及清洁燃料技术等政策选择不仅能促进"十一五"期间单位GDP能耗降低20%约束性目标的实现,而且也能有效减少中国CO2的排放量,为减缓气候变化做出贡献。
Climate change is one of hot issue all around the world. China, the second biggest CO2 emission cotmtry, is facing more and more severe pressure to reduce CO2 emission. The paper firstly describes Kaya Identity and its policy implications. Secondly, it uses the modified Kaya Identity and makes decomposition without residues on CO2 emission during the period 1971 - 2005. Taking into account the changes of background, it conducts an detailed analysis in terms of CO2 emission trend tanning from 4th FiveYear Plan to 10th FiveYear Plan. The decomposition results indicates that economic development and increase in population are major driving forces, and that improvement in energy efficiency contributes to the reduction of CO2 emission, and that decarbonization in primary energy structure is also an important strategic choice. Finally the paper stressed that in order to realize the target of 20% reduction in GDP energy intensity during the 11^th Five Year Plan, China should speed up the readjustment of the industrial structure, develop the energy-efficient technologies and clean fuel technology, which will effectively reduce CO2 emission and contribute to the mitigation of climate change.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
2008年第3期43-47,共5页
China Population,Resources and Environment
