对目前全球气候变化问题认知程度的思考

Cognition Research on Global Climate Change

随着全球增温以及各种异常气候灾害的频繁发生,人们越加关注对全球气候变化问题的研究,并一直努力寻找解决该问题的最有效的方案。然而自《京都议定书》这份唯一的国际范围签署的旨在减缓温室气体的协议制定以来的10年时间,气候变化问题有增无减,没有得到实质改善。这不仅是科技水平和政策手段上的局限所至,更为根本的原因是现有对全球气候变化问题的认知仍存在缺陷。全球气候变化长期被默认为"公地悲剧"的现象是一种典型的"冥王星现象"。这种认知上的缺陷导致了当前缓解全球气候变化的方法难以行之有效。要找到缓解全球气候变化的有效途径,完善人们对全球气候变化问题的认知是重要的前提条件。

Along with the growth of global average temperature and the frequent occurrence of extreme climate disasters, the climate change issue gets more and more attention all around the world. Researchers are looking for an effective solution to the mitigation of climate change. However, after the ratification of Kyoto Protocol, which is the international agreement dedicated to solve the problem, climate change is getting more serious in the recent ten years. It is considered that the ultimate reason is not from the limitation of current technology or policy instrument, but from the cognition part, which is the basis guiding people to comprehend problems and search for solutions. Until now, the research on the climate change issue is consistently based on a deficient assumption that climate change is a kind of “tragedy of the commons”. This phenomenon could be considered as the “Pluto Phenomenon” and directly caused the inefficiency of current solution. Therefore, the cognition＇ s reconstruction is vital to guide researchers and relevant stakeholders to search for an efficient approach to mitigate climate change.