中国能源消费增长原因分析与节能途径探讨

Reason Analysis of Energy Consumption Increase and Discussion of Energy Saving Approach

中国正处于工业化和城市化快速发展的中期阶段,能源消费迅猛增长,节能减排任务艰巨。分析近年来能源消费增长原因，可为未来寻找节能途径提供参考。论文在构建能源投入产出表的基础上，利用结构分解分析方法，将促使能源消费增长因素分解为经济规模、产业结构、经济增长方式和节能技术变化4个因素。并以1997-2002年为样本期,定量测度了各因素变化对中国能源消费增长的贡献值及贡献率。结果表明：促使能源消费增加的因素中，贡献率最大的是经济规模的增加。其次是产业结构变化和经济增长方式变化。而减少能源消费的因素只有节能技术变化，但由于其贡献值的绝对值小于前3个因素的贡献值之和，因此能源消费总量仍呈增加趋势。可见，技术进步已被证明是节能的有效途径，而未来通过调整产业结构和转变经济增长方式节能的任务还任重而道远。

China is at middle stage of industrialization and urbarization is increasing quickly.Analysis of the reason of energy consumption increase is precondition of looking for energy saving approach. The paper uses method of structural decomposition analysis to decompose China energy consumption increase into four factors： economy scale, industrial structure, economy develop mode and saving technology, The result indicates that change of economy scale, industrial and economy develop mode promote energy consumption increase, but energy saving technology advancement promote energy consumption decrease. So it is effective to save energy by adjusting industrial structure and transforming economy develop mode. Technology advancement is an effective approach to save energy.