山东省能源消费与工业经济增长的灰色关联分析

Grey Associated Analysis on the Relationship Between Energy Consumption and Industrial Economic Growth in Shandong Province

能源消费与经济增长的关系问题是能源经济学的研究核心之一。目前中国经济正处于高速增长时期,工业经济高能耗的粗放增长方式必然导致能源短缺。这种能源短缺反过来又会制约经济的增长。因此分析能源消费和工业经济增长的关系并进而正确处理这种关系,对于中国乃至各区域的可持续发展都非常重要。本文运用灰色相对关联度方法,利用山东省1998-2006年能源消费数据,从能源消费总量与能源利用效率两方面分析了山东省能源消费与工业经济增长之间的关联度。研究表明:能源消费与工业经济增长之间有着显著的正相关关系,但是比较而言,能源消费总量与工业GDP的关联度要大于能源利用效率与工业GDP的关联度,体现了目前工业经济仍然是粗放式增长模式,能源消费总量仍然是影响经济增长的关键因素。

The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is one of the research keys in energy - economics. At present, economy in China is rising with high speed, and inevitably, extensive growth way with high energy consumption in industrial economy causes energy shortage. This shortage will restrict economic growth conversely. Hence, analyzing the relationship between energy consumption and industrial economic growth and handling it well are very important to China and even to all its regions. In this paper, grey associated analysis method is used to analyze this relationship in Shandong Province from two aspects： one is the total of energy consumption and the other is energy utilization ratio. The results show that the positive relationships really exist. Comparatively speaking, the total consumption of energy has higher associated degree with industrial GDP than energy utilization ratio. The results illnstrate that industrial economy is still increased in extensive way, and the total energy consumption is a significant factor for industrial economic growth.