中国能源国际安全战略的博弈新视角

New Perspective of Game to Analyze the Positive Demonstration of International Energy Security Strategy of China

作为能源消费第二大国,中国能源的国际安全问题给中国的政治和经济的稳定发展提出了严峻的挑战。新自由制度主义无法解释强者往往选择"背叛"战略的现象,无力面对安全领域缺乏合作的挑战。而现实主义对博弈最优合作给予了最悲观的认识,因而无法解释日益增多的合作现象,这就决定了寻求建立适合的博弈模型来解决能源安全困境的迫切性。为了解除中国能源国际安全的现实困境,基于不完全信息的动态博弈视角,建立博弈模型,得出中国能源的国际安全战略应是冲突与合作共存。博弈最终的结果取决于博弈方采取的策略选择和博弈阶段的变化。建议加快中俄能源合作、加强同中东国家的能源产业一体化、应突出周边甚至大周边外交、参与和构建多边合作机制来实现中国能源国际安全战略。

As the second country of energy consumption, the problem of international energy security strategy of China has challenged the stability of politics and economics of China. New-liberalism can＇ t explain that why the stronger always chooses treachery in international security; Realism always gives the most pessimist attitude towards the best cooperation of game, but increasing cooperation appears. So, it＇s important to establish the game model to solve the problems of energy security. In order to shake off the current dilemmas of the international energy strategy of china, the text draws a completely different security conclusion by modifying the premises based by the above two security opinions. The model concludes conflict and cooperation exist together, and the result of game depends on the choices of strategy and the phases of game. Quickening the energy cooperation with Russia, strengthening the industrialization with middle-east, enhancing periphery diplomacy, participating in and establishing the multilateral systems are main suggestions to carry out international energy security strategy of China.