和谐社会能源需求情景的构造

Scenario Building of Energy Demand for Sustainable Chinese Society

本文采用协整分析理论,论证了资本存量和城市化率是影响中国GDP的两个变量。运用建立的GDP模型,对中国未来的GDP进行了情景分析。我们比较了德国,日本等一些发达国家能源消耗的历史和现状,对中国未来单位GDP的能源需求作出了情景假设,构建了对中国和谐社会建设、可持续发展有利的能源需求情景-环境友好情景。在这一情景下,到2050年,一次能源总消耗量达到43.1亿tce(吨标准煤);人均能耗为3.06 tce,是中国2005年人均能耗的1.8倍,是日本2003年人均能耗的51%。在这一情景下,中国2050年单位GDP的能耗虽然比2003年的德国要低20%,但比2003年日本的单位GDP能耗仍高出37%。我们认为,只要艰苦努力,这一情景具有一定的可实施性。但是,节能减排是一项长期的工作,它不但涉及制造业能耗,还将越来越多地涉及生活能耗。

Co-integration theory has been employed in this paper and Granger causes are found between ttrbanization rate and GDP, between capital stock and GDP. Scenario analysis of GDP is performed using the GDP model established in the paper. The energy consumptions in Germany, Japan and other developed countries are analyzed and compared with the energy consumption in China. Environmental Friendly Scenario of energy demand for sustainable Chinese society has been built based on the results of comparison. Under Environmental Friendly Scenario, the primary energy consumption will be 4.31 billion tce in 2050; and will be 3.06 tce per capital that is 1.8 times of energy consumed in 2005 in China and 51% of consumed energy per capital in Japan in 2003. In 2050, the energy requirement of unit GDP will be 20% lower than that of Germany in 2003, but will be still 37% higher than energy requirement of unit GDP in Japan in 2003. It is certain that fulfilling the Environmental Friendly Scenario of energy demand is a difficult task and it needs long term efforts of whole society, not only in production sectors but also in service sectors and household sector.