我国电能-环境系统协调度综合评价研究及应用

Evaluation Method of Coordinated Development of Power-Environment System and Its Application in China

目前,我国面临着经济高速增长的巨大能源需求,电力产业作为重要的能源部门之一,对整个国民经济发展所起的基础性支撑作用是巨大的;但其中发电行业所造成的环境污染也给社会带来一系列问题,尤以火力发电厂的污染排放所占份额最多。因此本文的主要研究对象是火力发电厂对环境造成的影响,文中的电能系统指的是我国的火力发电系统。为了客观评价我国目前电能—环境系统的协调发展状况,根据可持续发展理论思想,构建电能—环境系统的协调度综合评价指标体系,并运用主成分分析和回归相结合的协调度综合评价方法对我国1995-2005年电能—环境协调发展状况进行定量分析。最后,基于实证研究的结果,就我国电能—环境的未来协调发展提出对策建议。

Currently, China is faced with strongly requirements that economy grows with high speed. Being an energy sector, electric power industry plays an basic and important role in the economics development, but at the same time it has brought a series of problems because of enviromnental pollution, especially the enviromnental pollution of themal power generation. This paper focuses on the influence of thermal power generation to environment. The power system in paper refers to the thermal power generation. For appraising the coordination development of power-enviromnent system in China objectively, this paper built up a set of index of power-environment system. The development status for the system of power-environment in China during 1995 - 2005 has been evaluated by complex evaluation model of the coordinated degree and principal component analysis. Finally, some advices have been given based on the demonstration research.