上海市经济增长与环境污染的关系研究

Relationship Between Environmental Pollution and Economic Growth in Shanghai of China

该研究以上海市为实例,验证了环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假设,分析了影响EKC路径的驱动因子,旨在为其它地区设计适当的发展战略提供参考,以便尽早跨越EKC拐点。研究采用上海市1981-2005年期间的序列数据,对经济增长与环境污染之间的关系进行回归分析,解析了全市烟尘排放量、工业废水排放量、工业COD排放量和全市SO2排放量等4项环境污染排放量指标的演变轨迹和阶段特征。结果表明:这4项环境指标同人均GDP的拟合曲线呈现典型EKC特征,即倒U形。上海市在人均GDP5 700元跨越了工业废水排放量和工业COD排放量这2项指标的拐点,在人均GDP11 300元跨越了SO2排放量的拐点(人均GDP值均为1990年不变价),烟尘排放量的拐点更低。研究还利用压力-状态-响应(PSR)政策分析框架,通过分析产业结构、环保投资和环境管理的变化趋势,探讨了上海市EKC演变的驱动因子。结论建议:各地应因地制宜,积极寻求本地区符合可持续发展理念的经济决策和环境决策,争取尽早跨越EKC拐点,实现环境污染与经济增长之间的解耦。

This paper discusses the Environmental Kuznets Curve （EKC） hypothesis in Shanghai and analyzes the factors driving the path of EKC. We aim to provide the less developed areas with experiences to design well strategy of development to cross over the turning paint earfier of any potential EKC-thereby avoiding going through the same stages of groth that involve relatively high （and even irreversible） levels of environmental harm. This paper builds the regression models of relationship between per capita GDP and environmental pollution indicators using data from 1981 to 2005, through which the pattern and characteristics of EKC evolution for four environmental indicators are analyzed： The results indicate that there are inverted U-shaped relations between per capita GDP and four main environmental indicators. The results also show that all the 4 environmental indicators have surpassed the EKC peak and are stepping into decoupling. Particularly, three environmental indicators of emissions of urban smoke, industrial waste water and industrial COD crossed over the peak at lower per capita GDP. Finally, we d/scuss the driving forces to Shanghai＇ s EKC evolution from industrial structure, environmental investment and environmental management using the Press-State-Response （PSR） system of pohcy analysis.