甘肃省农村剩余劳动力供给形势分析

To Predict the Quantity of Rural Surplus-labor Supply in Gansu Province in 2007-2010

准确测算农村剩余劳动力对于发展劳务经济意义重大。文章在将农村剩余劳动力分为农业剩余劳动力和非农产业转移劳动力剩余两部分的基础上,通过试算甘肃省农业劳动力供给和需求、耕地面积、农村劳动力供给、农村非农劳动力需求的时间序列模型以及城市化进程对劳动力转移吸纳模型的各种可能形式,得到各种模型的最优形式,进而估算未来几年内甘肃农村剩余劳动力的数量。

For the development of country economic, it is very important to estimate the quantity of rural surplus-labor supply and agrictdtural surplus-labor supply. On the base of dividing rural surplus-labor into agricultural surplus-labor and non-a- gricultural surplus-labor, this paper will find the best format of every Time-Ser/es Model, such as the supply model and demand model of agricultural surplus-labor, the model of infield area, the supply model of rural surplus-labor, the demand model of non- rural surplus-labor, and the elasticity model of urbanization of gansu province to labor transition. Then we will estimate the quantity of rural surplus-labor supply in Gansu province from 2007 to 2010.