我国经济增长与产业结构演进关系的研究——基于面板数据模型的实证分析

The Research about the Relationship between Economic Growth and the Industrial Structure Evolvement of our Country——demonstration investigation basing on the panel data model

本文运用面板数据模型,对我国各省1996-2005年人均GDP及三次产业产值比重的关系分别进行了模型拟合,结论认为:我国经济增长对产业结构变化的影响显著,而后者对前者的影响在统计上并不显著,我国经济增长模式是需求导向型的。其次,就各次产业与人均GDP的关系看,第一产业与人均GDP呈现负相关关系,而第二、三产业与人均GDP呈现正相关关系。

This paper makes a demonstration investigation about the relationship between the per capita GDP of all the provinces in our country from 1996 to 2005 and the production value proportion among primary, secondary and tertiary industry respectively with the panel data model. Then we can get a conclusion. Firstly, our countries＇ economic growth has a great influence on the industrial structuring, but, contrariwise, the influence seems not obvious in statistics, and the economic growth mode of our country is demand oriented. Secondly, from the relationship between every industry, we can see that primary industry and per capita GDP are negatively correlative, but both secondary and tertiary industries and per capita GDP are positively correlative.