隧道变形预测的灰色模型研究

Study on Grey Model of Deformation of Tunnel

隧道变形预测对隧道施工监测具有重要的意义.考虑到隧道变形的非线性,采用灰色系统理论来模拟和预测隧道的变形.用灰色等时距GM(1,1)模型、新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型及Verhulst模型这三种常见的模型来预测隧道拱顶下沉量,从而提出了新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型的适用性,能反映隧道施工动态的过程.

Deformation predication of tunnel is very important in control of construction monitoring. Considering the nonlinear character of deformation of the tunnel, the prediction model grey system is proposed. The equal-time-span GM （1,1） model,the gray renewal GM（1,1） model and the gray Verhulst model of the gray system theory are applied in the tunnel for prediction of surrounding rocks displacement. The results show that the generalization of the gray renewal GM（ 1,1 ） model is good which can be satisfied with the excavating of tunnel.