对外贸易与中国制造业发展：基于可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型的模拟分析

The General Equilibrium Analysis of the influence of China's International Trade on Manufacturing Development

运用CGE模型模拟分析了对外贸易对我国制造业主要行业的产出、收益及投资水平的作用效果。分析结果显示,制造业产出、收益和投资变化率与对外贸易变化率呈正相关;除了金属行业的收益增长率在贸易小幅增长时,其行业的收益率高于贸易的增长率以外,其余行业的贸易的增长率均大于各行业收益增长率,低于投资增长率;而贸易的小幅增长对于纺织业、金属行业、炼焦、煤气和石油加工业的收益水平的提升更有利;贸易的高度增长对于具有增长潜力的机械行业更有利;对于食品制造业、化学行业、非金属矿物制品业来讲贸易的适度增长对行业发展更有利。由此提出在大力发展制造业贸易的同时,要针对各行业对贸易的不同敏感程度,合理的调整产业政策,发挥技术创新能力,以此提升制造业的贸易利得。

This paper simulates the influence of the trade increase on output, revenue and investment of China＇ s major manufacturing by applying CGE model. The results have revealed： there exists a positive correlation between the growth rate of manufacturing output, revenue and investment and trade growth rate; the trade growth rate is higher than all industries＇ revenue growth rate and lower than investment growth rate apart from the metal industry whose revenue growth rate is higher than trade growth rate under small trade growth; the small trade growth is more beneficial to the growth of revenue of textile, metal products, coke. coal gas and petroleum processing industry; the high growth in trade is more favorable for machinery and equipment manufacturing; the moderate trade growth benefits the development of food production industry, chemical industry, non-metallic mineral product industry. Therefore, it is concluded that we should adjust industrial policies and exert technological innovation so as to promote the further manufacturing development according to trade impact on the manufacture＇ s output revenue and investment while greatly increasing manufacturing trade.