摘要
作为水库防洪、发电、农田灌溉的基础,径流预报对区域水资源的开发利用、水库优化调度和综合管理有着重要的指导作用。本文依据千河32年的径流实测资料,建立了模型,并应用该模型对未来枯水年进行了预测,结果表明:2008年,2011年,2013年,2016年,2019年将预计可能出现枯水年,从而为该区水资源的综合利用和冯家山水库的优化调度提供了理论依据。
As the basis of flood control, hydropower, and irrigation, the forecast of runoff plays an important role in guiding the development and utilization, optimal distribution and overall management for the regional water resources. Based on the measured runoff data from 1974 to 2005,this paper established the model which was applied to forecast the dry years in the near future. The results have shown that 2008,2011,2013,2016 and 2019 will be the dry year, which offered the support for the overall utilization of regional water resources and optimal operation of Fengjiashan Reservoir.
出处
《水资源与水工程学报》
2008年第2期41-43,共3页
Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering
关键词
灰色系统
径流
枯水年
千河
gray system
runoff
dry years
Qianhe River
