摘要
本文通过对乌鲁木齐河年最大洪峰流量实测资料与历史洪水资料的分析，选定了正态分布、对数正态分布、三参数对数正态分布、Gumbel分布、Pearson-Ⅲ型分布和对数Pearson-Ⅲ型分布等6种线型，利用极大似然法对各种分布函数的参数进行了最优估计。结果表明，对数Pearson-Ⅲ型分布是分析乌鲁木齐河年最大洪峰流量分布的最佳线型。
Flood frequency analysis has been proved to be complicated in terms of its distribution function option, corrisponding parameter estimation and available information used- The author makes use of the normal, lognormal t three-paramter lognormal, Pearson type 3,log-Pearson type 3 and Gumbel distributions with the maximum likelihood method and combining the systematic record of flood discharge with historical flood data to define the best fitted distribution of annual largest peak discharge in Urumqi River. At last logPearson type 3 proved to be as the best fitted distribution in the consistence of annual peak discharge in Urumqi River as a result of the visua1 assessment of the plot of abserved values the fitted quanti1es and Filliben probability-plot correlation test.
出处
《干旱区地理》
CSCD
北大核心
1997年第4期1-10,共10页
Arid Land Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金!49471018
关键词
乌鲁木齐河
洪水
频率分析
Urumqi River
flood
frequency analysis
