台湾海峡地震余震及汕头市地基震害初步预测

PRELIMINARY PREDICTION OF THE TAIWAN STRAIT EARTHQUAKE AFTERSHOCK AND THE EARTHQUAKEDISASTER OF FOUNDATION IN SHANTOU

根据灰色系统的一阶灾变模型，对台湾海峡7．3级地震的ML≥5．0级余震进行了预测，给出了未来可能的发震时间；根据汕头市国际大酒店地下室记录的这次地震的地面加速度时程，反演计算得到了基岩加速度时程，据此进行了地震反应分析，并对地基震害作了分区。

Based on the 1st - order catastrophe model in grey system, the aftershocks with ML≥5 .0 of the M7 .3 Taiwan strait earthquake are made a prediction, and the probably occurring time in the future is given. The bedrock acceleration time history is obtained by inverse computation, according to the ground acceleration time history of this eaxthquake recorded by the accelerographs installed in the basement of Internaional Hotel, Shantou; taking that as a input, seismic response analysis is performed, and taking the arcumulated maximum shear strain in basic intensity of Ⅷ as an index, zoning is carried out for the damage to foundation soil in Shantou.