降雨型泥石流(水石流)预报模型研究

STUDY ON PREDICTION MODELS OF PRECIPITATION TYPED DEBRIS FLOW

根据泥石流暴发具有某种周期性的特点，在获取了大量野外调查资料和历史资料的基础上，对降雨型泥石流进行了预报模型研究，并以北京市北部山区密云县为例作了泥石流预报尝试。以层次分析法和多元回归方法所得出的泥石流空间预报和时间预报模型对于泥石流的预报具有重要意义。

Based on the character of period of debris flow formation and many field surveys and historical data,studies on prediction models of precipitation typed debris flows have been done.A prediction of debris flow in Miyun County,Beijing was made using the model.The prediction models of space and time of debris flows which have been designed by the methods of analytic hierarchy process and multivariate regression are the models of significance for the prediction of debris flow.