北欧数值预报系统HIRLAM在中国的应用──长江流域暴雨的预报试验

APPLICATION OF THE HIRLAM SYSTEM IN CHINA——TORRENTIAL RAIN FORECASTING EXPERIMENTS IN YANGTZE RIVER VALLEY

将北欧有限区域模式ＨＩＲＬＡＭ应用于中国地区，以检验该模式在定量预报夏季长江流域暴雨方面的能力．３次长江流域暴雨个例的预报试验表明：０～２４ｈ的累积雨量预报是比较成功的，能够报出长江流域大部分日降水５０ｍｍ以上的暴雨区；２４～４８ｈ累积雨量预报的质量各个例有较大差异，总体上比０～２４ｈ预报质量有相当大的下降，尤其是在５０ｍｍ以上暴雨区的预报方面能力较差．

The HIRLAM system was used in China to test its ability in forecasting the summer torrential rain in Yangtze River valley. The experiments of three selected torrential rain cases show that 0～24 h accumulated rainfall forecasts are quite successful, being able to reproduce most of the observed torrential rain areas (daily rainfall≥50 mm) in the Yangtze River valley. The 24～48 h accumulated rainfall forecasts vary with different cases. Some cases are successful, some are failure. On the whole the 24～48 h rainfall forecasts are worse than 0～24 h forecasts, especially for the forecast of daily rainfall≥50 mm.