次贷危机与国际油价

The subprime crisis and international oil prices

2001年美国为挽救濒临衰退的经济而出台了宽松的货币政策,降息周期在刺激经济增长的同时,引发了房地产泡沫,并为次贷危机埋下伏笔。当前,次贷危机已经演变成一次全面的信贷危机,并加剧了美国经济的颓势。美国为缓解次贷危机而采取的自救措施已引起全球通货膨胀和美元持续贬值,导致包括原油在内的大宗商品价格暴涨。在石油市场供求紧张态势没有根本改变的背景下,油价将在美国宽松货币政策推动下叠创新高,超高油价可能在未来十年出现。世界经济和人类生活也许将不得不面对一次真正的经济衰退和超高石油价格的挑战。但这也可能是人类摆脱化石燃料、实现能源利用转型和生产、生存方式转型的重要契机。

In an effort to stave off economic recession, the United States relaxed its monetary policy in 2001. While stimulating the economy, the ensuing cycle of falling interest rates also created the housing bubble, planting the seeds for the subprime crisis to come. The subprime crisis has now evolved into a fullblown credit crisis, plunging the U.S. economy deeper into decline. The measures the United States has taken to ease this crisis have led to worldwide currency inflation and a declining US dollar, sending prices for crude oil and other basic commodities soaring. With the tight supply situation on the international oil market unlikely to change, oil prices will continue to reach new highs under loose U.S. monetary policy, and we may see oil prices soar within the next ten years. The world's economy, and the lifestyles of its people, may have to cope with the challenges of a bona fide economic recession and soaring oil prices. However, this may also be a critical turning point in our efforts to break from fossil fuels, and to transform our use of energy resources and way of existence.