摘要
目前,洪水风险管理(FRM)中风险与不确定性评估的语言与工具极少能很好地解决现存的沟通问题。本文对英国风险沟通中实用符号学的基本原理进行阐述,此处风险沟通主要是指从事洪水预报和模型开发的科学家与接受洪水风险评估和预警的专业团体之间的沟通。文章从专业人员所承担的任务角度出发,对限制有效沟通的因素、针对风险与不确定性沟通的障碍、沟通语言的创造和沟通语言的限制减少等方面进行了讨论。概述了开发这种表述的现有工具,此表述用于洪水实时预警及一般性的洪水风险管理沟通。文章认为,科学与专业人员之间解译表述的构建可以缓解洪水风险沟通中不确定性的产权争议,并且,此构建过程会产生可用在不同领域的不确定性评估"操作规则"。另外,文中也讨论了机构背景下可能发生这种构建过程的种种途径。
The language and tools of risk and uncertainty estimation in flood risk management (FRM) are rarely optimized for the extant communication challenge.This paper develops the rationale for a pragmatic semiotics of risk communication between scientists developing flood models and forecasts and those professional groups who are the receptors for flood risk estimates and warnings in the UK.The current barriers to effective communication and the constraints involved in the formation of a communication language are explored, focusing on the role of the professional's agenda or 'mission' in creating or reducing those constraints.The tools available for the development of this discourse,for both flood warnings in real time and generalized FRM communications,are outlined.It is argued that the contested ownership of the articulation of uncertainties embedded in flood risk communications could be reduced by the development of a formally structured translational discourse between science and professionals in FRM,through which process 'codes of practice' for uncertainty estimation in different application areas can be developed.Ways in which this might take place in an institutional context are considered.
