基于工程投资的核电技术经济分析及风险控制

Economic analysis and risk control based on project investment of nuclear technology

"积极推进核电发展"是我国目前的基本能源政策,对于实现国家能源安全、经济发展和环境保护具有重要的战略意义。我国的核电事业正面临着历史的发展机遇,核电经济性是其参与电力市场竞争和持续发展的基础。为反映核电在运营周期的经济性,以某内陆厂址采取AP1000和M310+技术为参考,基于工程造价对发电成本和上网电价进行分析比较。结果表明:AP1000双堆机组主要经济指标优于M310+技术;在考虑核燃料后处理及退役等外部成本情况下,核电与常规燃煤火电相比仍具有较强的市场竞争力。

Chinese government had put forward the policy of developing nuclear power in an active way, which will provide vital strategy for energy security, economic development and environment protection. While confronting vital opportunity and challenge of nuclear power development in China, economics of nuclear power is turning to be the foundation of its competition ability in electricity market. To reflect the distinctive economic characteristics of nuclear technology during overall life-cycle of operation, an inland nuclear site was taken as reference on project investment for comprehensive analysis between nuclear technologies of AP1000 and M310＋ on this paper. According to detailed calculations and analysis, the generation cost and wholesale price of AP1000 are superior to M310＋ nuclear technology, and both nuclear technologies have market competition ability comparing with coal power, even on consideration of exterior social cost of spent fuel management and decommissioning.