水资源对中国农业的“增长阻力”分析

Growth drag of water resources to agriculture in China

以罗默的“增长阻力”概念模型为分析基础，利用1997～2006年我国各省区农业生产的面板数据集，度量了水资源紧缺对中国农业生产的制约程度。结果显示：从全国范围来看，由于水资源的供给不足，单位面积农业产值增长速度在1997～2006年平均每年要比上一年降低0．1121％。按照这一数据推算，到2030年单位面积农业产值增长率将比目前降低2．66％；到2040年单位面积农业产值增长率将比目前降低3．74％；

Based on Romer′s growth drag conceptual model, the growth drag of water resources to agriculture in China was calculated by using the panel data of agricultural production in various provinces during 1997?2006. The results showed that from the nationwide range, owing to the insufficient water resources, the growth rate of agricultural production value per unit area would be decreased by 0.11% year by year during 1997?2006. Accordingly, as compared with the present value, the growth rate of agriculture production per unit area will have been decreased by 2.66%, 3.74% and 4.82% till 2030, 2040 and 2050, respectively. Analysis of the growth drag of agriculture in China showed that the industrial elasticity of capital and the yield elasticity of water resources might be lowered to reduce the drag, the existing agricultural water modes should be changed, and the advanced water-saving techniques and measures should be employed so as to raise the efficiency of agricultural water.