流程型企业原材料需求预测与库存决策方法及应用

Investigation on Raw Material Demand Forecasting and Its Inventory Controlling for a Continuous Production Process

以石化企业化工原辅料库存管理问题为背景,研究流程型企业与生产计划相关的原材料库存管理问题。从订购提前期与生产计划是否确定的角度,将流程型企业原材料需求分为四类,重点研究了订购提前期与生产计划不确定下的需求预测方法,并给出了确定其库存决策的建议策略及再订购点和订购批量的确定方法。应用结果则证明了所提出的预测与决策方法的适用性。

This paper addresses the raw material inventory control for the enterprise with a continuous production process. Based on the sources of demand uncertainty, the month production plan and procurement lead time, this paper sorts raw material demands into four categories, and presents forecasting methods especially when the month production plan and procurement lead time are uncertain. According to the demand forecasting, inventory control policy is developed. Application results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach.