土地利用规划中建设用地预测模型的比较研究

Comparison on the Build-up Area Prediction Models in Land Use Planning

建设用地的科学准确预测是土地利用总体规划中的重要内容,通过模型预测、数据验证和误差分析,总结分析了各种建设用地预测模型的特性与适用条件。研究结果表明。一元线性回归法适用于线性趋势较为明显的数据预测;而当可供利用的历史数据较少时,可采用指数平滑法;模型适用于数据较多、较复杂的预测;如果预测过程中参与的专家较多时,就可以采用头脑风暴法。

Exactly predicting the build-up area is one of the important content of land use planning. By model prediction,data validation and analysis of the residue errors,the characteristics and requirements of each construction land prediction model were summarized. The results indicate that：Mono-linear Regression model is suitable when the data have apparent linear tendency. Index-smooth is appropriate when historical data are insufficient, model can be selected when the data are complex. If there are sufficient experts, the Brain-storm model can be selected.