中国经济增长与耕地资源非农流失的计量分析--耕地库兹涅茨曲线的检验与修正

Measurement and Analysis of the Relationships Between Farmland Conversion and Economic Growth in China——The Examination and Rectification the Farmland Kuznets Curve

经济增长不仅包括经济总量的增长，还涉及经济结构的变化，仅用耕地与收入的曲线关系不能全面剖析耕地与经济增长之间的关系。本研究选取1986～2004年中国的耕地、经济数据，构建耕地非农流失量与人均收入、经济结构变量的计量模型，对我国经济增长与耕地流失之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明：（1）我国的耕地非农流失与经济发展的演化规律基本符合库兹涅茨曲线的特征；（2）经济结构的变化对耕地非农流失以及耕地与收入曲线产生的影响，居民实际消费水平增长率、进出口贸易的比重、投入产出比的提高会加大耕地资源非农流失，并刺激经济增长对耕地非农化的需求，促使耕地与收入曲线更加陡峭，相反，产业结构的升级则缓解经济增长过程中耕地的压力。

The economic growth not only includes the gross growth but involves the economic structure changes. The farmland income per capita curve can not reflect fully the relationship between farmland and economic growth. The data about farmland and economy during 1986 -2004 were used to construct the models of farmland conversion and income per capita and economic construction indicators, and then to exam the relationship between economic growth and farmland conversion. Results showed ： （ 1 ） The relationship of farm land conversion and economic growth follows the characteristic of Kuznets Curve ; （2） The changes of economic structure have impacted on the farmland conversion and the relationship between farmland conversion and income per capita. The increase of the growth - rate of the resident practical consumption level, the proportion of total value of import and export and GDP,the rate of economic input and output can speed up the farmland conversion, incentive the demand of non - agriculture land, and make the farmland - per capita curve craggedness. On the converse, the industrial structure upgrade can improve the pressure on the farmland.