国际收支双顺差下的货币政策有效性思考

Reflections on Validity of China's Monetary Policy on the Double Surplus

中国的国际收支失衡是最近几年世界经济共同关注的一个问题。分析了我国双顺差的现状、原因。从国内外经济平衡的角度看,双顺差必然会对我国经济持续健康发展带来负面影响,目前的这种双顺差格局不可长期持续。同时,双顺差现象对国内宏观政策调控带来难题,对中央银行货币政策的有效性和独立性构成进一步挑战。调整双顺差以保持货币政策的独立性和有效性,中国必须尽快调整外资、外贸和产业政策。

Balance of payments in China is a problem that world economy shows great solicitude over the past few years. The paper first examines the characteristics and causes of the phenomenon in China. As for home and abroad eco- nomic equilibrium angle, double surplus will bring about negative effect for the sustainable and healthy development of Chinese economy, and the pattern of double surplus can not continue for. At the same time, double surplus in the home- land bring about a difficult problem to macro- control policy, and also bring about a challenge to the validity and independent of monetary policy of central bank. Adjusting double surplus to keep monetary policy independent and validity, China must adjust foreign capital, foreign trade and industrial policy as soon as possible.