出口贸易对我国三次产业劳动力流向的影响分析

The Empirical Analysis on Employment Effect of Export-trade in China

中国经济改革与渐进式贸易自由化的发展历程为阐明我国国际贸易与劳动力市场关系提供了重要的实证研究线索。本文以1978～2005年的数据为研究对象，建立向量自回归（VAR）模型，采用脉冲响应函数及方差分解的方法，对我国出口贸易与三次产业劳动力就业情况进行实证分析，得到出口贸易对我国三次产业劳动力就业贡献率存在显著不同的结论。主要表现为拉动第二、三产业就业增长，间接地促进了劳动力在产业间的转移，在劳动力升级和就业结构优化方面具有明显的推动作用。

In the past 30 years,China has experienced the reform from obturation to opening-up,and from administrative intervention to the market-leading.Such course provides a clue for analyzing the relationship between export-trade and employment in China.Through the empirical study based on the data from 1978 to 2005,this paper proves that export-trade has significant expansion and diverting effects on employment among three industries and inter-industries,especialy for the second industry,and also plays a positive role in promoting the upgrade and optimization of China's employment structure.