人民币实际汇率和汇率错位对中国制造业出口贸易的影响--基于中国和主要贸易伙伴间面板数据的实证研究

The Effect of RMB Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Misalignment on the Manufacture Export:An Empirical Analysis on the panel data of China and the main mercantile partnership

本文利用国际贸易标准分类1位数以1983～2005年中国对主要贸易伙伴出口的制造业产品为研究对象，通过EG两步法、广义最小二乘法等方法对我国出口商品需求方程系统进行了估计。分析强调人民币实际汇率、实际汇率错位对中国不同产品出口的影响，其中人民币升值会降低中国对主要贸易伙伴国的制造业产品出口，汇率错位在绝大多数分析中表现为对出口具有不利影响。

Using trade data of SITC 1 digit level from 1983-2005,the paper calculates RMB equilibrium exchange rate and exchange rate misalignment respectively.After that the paper analyzes the relationship of RMB equilibrium exchange rate,exchange rate misalignment and export between China and the main trade partners.Through empirical analysis the paper finds that the devaluation of RMB can increase the export and the exchange rate misalignment is bad for the export.