贸易条件趋势与进出口波动：基于1980～2006年亚洲国家和地区的实证研究--兼论其对中国的启示

Trends of Trade Condition and Shocks:An Empiriical Study on the Selected Asian Countries during 1986-2006 and Its Implication to China Mainland

本文对亚洲国家在1980～2006年间贸易条件趋势及进出口波动的平稳性进行了实证研究。实证研究结果表明：出口增长不一定能够长期改善贸易条件，进口增长也并不一定长期恶化贸易条件，而确保进口波动的长期平稳才是促使亚洲国家贸易条件呈现长期平稳趋势的关键因素。同时，本文发现中国大陆在这期间的出口增长对其贸易条件的改善作用不足以抑制贸易条件在短期恶化的趋势，这与中国大陆在现今国际外贸市场的激烈竞争之下出口商品的单位价格逐渐下降有关。本文对此提出了几点建议。

This paper studies emperically on trends of trade condition and shocks with the panal data of some Asian countries during 1980-2006.The results show that neither the exports nor the imports growth can improve or deteriorate the trade condition for a long term.Instead,the stability of trade shocks is just the key fector to insure the long-term stability of trade conditioin.It finds that,exports growth in China Mainland during this period was hardly controlled the deterioration of trade condition in short term.Perhapes,it relates to the drop in the price of exports due to the international competition.This paper puts forward some suggestions to the problem.