我国物价波动特征的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Characteristics of China’s Price Fluctuation

本文旨在分析我国物价水平变动的规律,预测未来价格变化的走势。利用时间序列的移动平均比率法、频谱分析、ARCH类模型等,本文实证分析了我国消费物价指数(CPI)波动的季节性、周期性、集聚性等特征。结论显示:我国物价波动呈季节性特征,具有3年左右的短周期和9年左右的长周期,聚集特征明显,物价上涨具有一定的长期记忆性。有关结论对预测我国未来CPI的走势有一定现实指导意义。

In order to study the changing regularity of price level in China and forecast its trend in the future,this paper uses statistical methods, such as ratio to moving average method, spectral analysis, ARCH models of time series, and empirically analyzes the characteristics of General Consumer Price Index（CPI）fluctuation in China, which including the seasonal fluctuation, the cyclical fluctuation and the volatility clustering. The results show that,the fluctuation of price level has the characteristic of seasonal fluctuation,and there exists the short-cycle of three years and the long-cycle of nine years;its volatility clustering is obvious,and the price rise has the characteristic of long memory.