船舶电力推进系统电力负荷混沌特性分析及预测

Chaotic characters of power load and its forecasting for marine electric propulsion system

为实现船舶电力推进系统功耗的最优控制,提高船舶运行的经济性,建立了基于正则化的电力负荷混沌局域预测模型.运用相空间重构理论对船舶电力推进系统电力负荷进行单变量时间序列相空间重构,计算吸引子的Lyapunov指数,验证船舶电力推进系统电力负荷具有混沌特性,进而构建更为精准的由船舶电力负荷及其影响因素构成的多变量时间序列相空间.实验结果表明,该预测模型是有效的,且具有较高的预测精度.

A local prediction model of chaotic time series for power load was set up to realize optimal control for low-power consumption while promoting the operational economy in marine electric propulsion system. Phase space reconstruction of single variable time series was used in power load in marine electric propulsion system based on phase space reconstruction theory, and the Lyapunov exponents of the attractors were calculated, which proved that the power load has chaotic characteristics. Moreover, a more accurate multivariable time series phase space forecasting model was reconstructed. Experimental results show that the proposed model is effective with high prediction precision.