采空区自燃“三带”的灰色关联分析与预测研究

Study on Interrelation and Predicating Tri-zone of Coal Spontaneous Combustion ofGoaf Based on Grey Theory

采用灰色系统理论对于陈家山煤矿416综放工作面采空区自燃"三带"与CO变化、工作面推进度等影响因素进行了分析。通过灰色关联分析发现CO变化与工作面推进距离存在一定相关性,即通过灰色绝对关联度,将工作面推进度与采空区自燃"三带"和煤炭自然发火期关联起来。对于研究得出的工作面推进距离,采用了GM(1,1)以及残差GM(1,1)预测模型,来预测非正规工作条件下采空区自然"三带"位置变化,本文所研究的成果对于指导煤矿现场预防自燃火灾具有重要的指导作用。

By using Grey theory, there is an analysis about the tri - zone of coal spontaneous combustion in goat＇, and CO variety and the marching step of work in the 416 work -face of Chen Jiashan Mine was introduced in this paper. Namely, the Grey absolute rela- tion grade, which was confirmed that related to the marching step of work, tri - zone of coal spontaneous combustion in goaf and Coal Spontaneous Combustion Period. As for the marching distance of working face, a forecast model of GM （ 1,1 ） and the residuals GM （ 1, 1 ） is adopted to predicated the change of tri - zone of coal spontaneous combustion in goaf under un - normal conditions. The result of the study is very effective for preventing the spontaneous combustion disaster in coal mines.