广东省最终需求结构变动对能源消耗强度的影响

On the Impact of Energy Consumption Intensity on Final Demand Structure Change of Guangdong Province

在输入内生的条件下,构造最终需求产品结构的能源消耗强度因素模型,进而实证分析广东省最终需求结构变动对能源消耗强度的影响。分析表明,消费结构因素、最终需求项目结构因素影响能源消耗强度作用不太明显,资本形成结构因素、输出结构因素影响能源消耗强度作用非常明显,提高输出比例和降低资本形成比例都有助于降低广东省能源消耗强度。预测表明,随着广东省最终需求结构的变动,广东省2010年按不变价计算的能源消耗强度有一定程度下降,但"十一五"时期要实现2010年能源强度比2005年下降20%左右的目标,仅依靠结构因素还达不到,还要从技术方面努力。

On terms of input endogenous variable, the paper up an energy consumption intensity factor model of the final demand product structure, and then empirically analyses the impact of energy consumption intensity on final demand structure change of Guangdong Province. The analysis indicates that it is not so obvious that the consumption structure factor influences the energy consumption intensity. It is very obvious that the capital formation structure factor influences the energy consumption intensity; it is also very obvious that the output formation structure factor influences the energy consumption intensity; it is not so obvious that the final demand item structure factor influences the energy consumption intensity. Improving the output proportion and reducing the capital formation proportion all contribute to reducing the energy consumption intensity of Guangdong Province. The forecast indicates that with the final demand structure change of Guangdong Province, the energy consumption intensity of Guangdong Province in 2010 will drop according to the fixed price. We cannot relies only on the structure factor to realize the goal of a drop about 20% compared with 2005 in 2010 during the 11th Five - Year- Plan Period, we also have to improve the technology.