通货膨胀对货币流通速度的效应分析

An Analysis on Inflation and Money Circulation Velocity: from 1953 to 2006

检验1953-2007年通货膨胀与货币供应的因果关系以及通货膨胀对货币流通速度的效应，结果显示：通货膨胀和货币供应量之间的双向因果关系得不到实证上的支持，通货膨胀是货币供应量变动的原因而且较为显著；整体上通货膨胀对货币流通速度的绝对加速效应要弱于相对加速效应。然而近年来的数据显示，通货膨胀对货币流通的绝对效应与相对效应变得明显，进一步证实了弗里德曼1963年的论断“通货膨胀总是货币现象”。

Since 2004, a new round of inflation has aroused extensive attention at all levels in China. This paper provides a research on the relationship such as causality between inflation and money supply in 1953 - 2006, and the effect of inflation on money circulation velocity, by using the first China Economic Census （CEC） data. It concludes that the two- way causal relationship between inflation and money supply is lack of empirical support, but inflation is the cause of money supply, and it＇ s noticeable; the speed - up effect on money circulating rate from inflation, dividing into absolutely speed- up effect and relatively speed- up effect. Also, the phenomena that the absolutely speed- up effect was more or less weak than the relatively speed - up effect according to our intuition. In recent years, these two kinds of speed - up effect are becoming more and more obvious, so more attention is needed. In short, ＂Inflation must be always monetary phenomena＂. it confirmed the famous judgment by Friedman （1963）,