政府职能与投资体制--基于国际数据及经验的分析

Government Function and Investment Regime:Empirical Study Based on Multi-country Data

政府职能范围对投资体制的形成确定具有决定性作用。政府职能、发展阶段、发展战略、经济结构等因素与投资体制存在动态循环作用。未来投资体制将出现:(1)政府参与投资的领域将逐步集中于公共事务;(2)公共投资领域中也将逐步引入市场运作机制;(3)投资的宏观调控方面将以间接方式为主;(4)直接融资相对规模将提高,间接融资相对规模将下降,财政资金相对规模可能呈倒U形变化;(5)投资中介机构的地位和作用将加大。

The functional boundary of government has decisive influence on the formation of investment regime. The investment regime and elements, such as government function, development stage and strategy, and economic structure, is dynamically interacted. Some trends are anticipated in China in the future: (1) Government will mainly focus on investment in public services; (2) Market mechanism will be introduced even in government investment; (3) Government will mainly use indirect policies to regulate investment behaviors; (4) Portions of direct financing will increase while portion of fiscal expenditure may show inversed U shape; (5) Intermediary agency will play a more important role.