成功幻觉与生产和人口的过度集中——兼论在城市发展规模上市场机制不一定是有效的

Toward Success Illusion and Over-Concentration of Production and Population

大多数人都觉得大城市的发展和事业成功的机会多,但到大城市工作的人只有少数能获得事业成功,根据成功机会预期进行就业地决策很可能遭受损失,这就是成功幻觉。本文研究发现,成功幻觉和待就业者对交通与住房成本的不敏感性,是生产与人口在大城市过度集中的两种市场机制。生产与人口的过度集中将导致虚假繁荣,即GDP快速上升,但大量社会产出被交通成本和住房成本所消耗,除少数成功者和土地所有者外,大多数人的实际收入和福利受到损失。因此,在城市发展规模上市场机制不一定是有效的。

Most people feel that chances of success in large cities abound. However, the fact is the minority of people from large cities can achieve career success. Thus there exists success illusion that may lead to improper decision regarding employment locations. This article finds that success illusion and the insensitivity of transport and housing cost for those who seek employment are the two market mechanisms of over-concentration of production and population. The over-concentration of production and population would lead to false prosperity, i.e. rapid GDP growth with large social output consumed by transport and housing costs. Thus the scale mechanism of urban development would not be necessarily effective.