我国能耗和能源密集型产品贸易关系分析

An Investigation on the Relationship between Energy Consumption and the Trade of Energy Intensive Goods in China

本文使用误差修正技术对我国1997-2007年能源消费和能源密集型产品贸易之间的相互关系进行研究。研究发现,1997-2000年,存在能源密集型产品净进口和煤炭消费间双向因果关系;2001-2007年,存在煤炭消费和能源密集型产品出口间双向因果关系。此结果反映出我国能源密集型产品的贸易结构对能源投入的依赖性,同时说明外国需求拉动可能是加剧我国近年能源消费的一个重要因素。

This paper attempts to analyze the empirical relationship between energy consumption and the trade of energy intensive goods in China. Monthly data through 1997-2007 are analyzed with VEC model. The empirical evidence suggests that from 1997 to 2000, bi-directional causalities exist between energy consumption and net imports of energy intensive goods, while from 2001 to 2007 bi-directional causalities exist between energy consumption and exports of energy intensive goods. This results indicate that trade structure of energy intensive goods strongly depends on energy input, and that the demand of energy intensive goods from other countries may be an important factor accelerating China energy consumption in recent years.