灌区多目标供水与农业用水短缺——理论模型及政策含义

Multi-objective Water Supply of Irrigation Districts and Agricultural Water Shortage——A Theoretic Model and Implications for Policies

从基本的理性经济人假说出发,构建理论模型来探讨灌区供水组织多目标供水经济行为下的水资源分配问题。模型的运算结果表明:在农业水价改革的政策背景下,面对日趋激烈的非农行业用水竞争,与原来的单一农业供水相比,经济利益诱致下的灌区供水组织多目标供水行为将会导致农业在水资源产业间配置中处于劣势地位,水资源"农转非"态势将会加剧,农业可获得水量大幅度减少,农业用水短缺问题将会更加严重。因此,探索既能维持灌区供水组织的正常运营又能保证农业和农村用水需求的新型灌区水资源经营体制,应成为政策制定者关注的重点;而且灌区经营体制改革应先于灌区水价改革,这是灌区水价改革良好运作的前提。

A theoretic model of water allocation is established to expound the economic behavior of multi-objective water supply in irrigation districts based on the presupposition of fundamental rational economic individual, The calculation results indicate that multiobjective water supply caused by economic benefits may result in an unfavorable position of agricultural water under the political circumstances of the agricultural water price reform. The situation of using water in other areas than agriculture may be aggravated. The amount of agricultural water may decrease sharply, so the agricultural water shortage is worsening. Therefore, the policymaker should pay close attention to probing into a new management system, not only maintaining the regular operation of water supply organizations in irrigation districts but also satisfying the needs of farming and the countryside. Besides, water management and administration reform ought to be prior to the water price reform in irrigation districts, which is a prerequisite for the latter to operate well.