黄土高原地区水资源承载力动态变化及灰色拓扑预测——以山西、陕西、宁夏、甘肃四省为例

Study on the carrying capacity of water resources in the Loess Plateau——A case study of Shanxi,Shannxi,Ningxia,and Gansu province

研究水资源承载力对促进区域水资源的合理开发和保证经济可持续发展具有十分重要的作用。文章采用模糊综合评价方法,以水资源利用率、降水量、人均占有水量和生态用水量作为评价因素,首次对黄土高原水资源承载力进行了大尺度综合评价,并建立灰色拓扑预测模型对其动态变化进行预测,在此基础上提出了黄土高原水资源可持续利用对策。结果表明:黄土高原四省水资源承载力在1994—2004年间总体上呈缓慢上升趋势,水资源开发潜力呈微弱增大趋势;但值得注意的是,黄土高原水资源开发已有一定规模,其水环境仍十分脆弱,需要进一步作好节水和水资源的保护工作。

Area water resources carrying capacity is an key index, which has important role to water resource sustainable utilization, hydraulic engineering construction and management, the area economy sustainable development. In this paper, some quantitative evaluating factors such as the efficiency of water resources, the volume of precipitation, water resources per capital, ecological water use ratio were selected, the water resources carrying capacity of the Loess Plateau in 1994--2004 was quantitatively evaluated using the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model. A grey topological forecast model was established and it was used to predict the indexes of future variation tendency of water resources carrying capacity. At last, some measures were put forward for guarantee the sustainable utilization of water resources. The results showed that the water resources carrying capacity of four province in the Loess Plateau increased slowly in 1994--2004, the exploitation and development potential of water resources increased weakly; However, because most of water resources has been exploited in those areas, and the water environment was also very vulnerable, so more great attention must be pay to protect water resources.