基于模糊综合评价法的登陆台风灾害影响评估模型

A Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Model for Typhoon Disaster

对登陆我国的台风灾害影响进行评估试验,遴选10个因子作为灾害的影响因子,利用加权平均规划法确定影响因子的权重,应用模糊综合评价法得出台风影响的评价系数及灾情分级。对2000—2006年登陆台风的影响评估进行试验,模型的评估等级与实际的灾情级别均很接近,灾情等级为特别重大、重大、较重、一般四级的Ts评分分别达到89%、87%、73%、78%,全部个例的拟合率达到90%。表明该模型能较好地评估我国登陆台风造成的灾情。

The disaster impact is tentatively evaluated for typhoons making landfall in China. Ten factors are chosen as disaster impact factors, and weighted values of these impact factors are calculated by using weighted average programming method. Then, the evaluation coefficient of typhoon impact and the corresponding disaster grade can be obtained by applying the fuzzy synthetic method. Evaluation tests have been carried out for landed typhoons during the years from 2000 to 2006. The results show that the model evaluation grade keeps in close agreement with the actual disaster grade. The percentage of accuracy can reach 89%, 87%, 73%, and 78% , respectively, for four disaster grades as especial great, great, heavy, and general, and about 90 % for all samples. The results indicate that this model can evaluate typhoon disaster well for typhoons making landfall in China.