2007年12月至2008年2月T213、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

The Performance Verification of the Medium-Range Forecasting for T213 and ECMWF and JAPAN Model from Dec.2007 to Feb.2008

为了解中期数值预报模式性能,提高中期预报水平,针对2007年12月至2008年2月T213模式96小时预报产品进行天气学检验,并与ECMWF、日本模式96小时预报性能进行了对比分析。结果表明,三个模式的96小时预报对亚洲中高纬地区大尺度环流形势演变和重大调整有较强的预报能力,对于转折性天气的预报有较强的指示意义。综合分析来看,ECMWF模式对西风指数、850hPa温度变化、500hPa环流形势及南支槽的预报误差最小,日本模式次之。

In order to understand the efficiency of the products from a medium-range forecasting model, the performance of T213 model for 96hr medium-range numerical forecasting was verified during the period of Dec. 2007 to Jan. 2008 comparing with ECMWF model and Japan model. The result shows that the three models all have good performances for evolution and major adjustment of the large-scale circulation pattern in Asia high and middle latitude area. ECMWF model is better than the other two models for forecasting westerly index, the temperature of 850hPa, the circulation of 500hPa and southern branch trough, especially the event occurred during 10^th - 16^th Jan. 2008, but the T213 model and Japan model have errors in terms of the precision of the intensity, position of the main system.