瑞利模型在原油相对密度预测中的应用——以胜利油区东辛油田为例

Application of Rayleigh model on forecasting relative density of crude oil in Dongxin Oilfield

原油相对密度随着开采时间发生变化,其变化规律的定量预测为油田开采工作提供了可靠的理论依据。通过对瑞利模型公式的推导,建立了原油相对密度随开采时间变化的预测模型,并将其应用于胜利油区东辛油田辛10、辛11断块区,利用该区原油相对密度的开发动态数据进行回归分析。研究结果表明,瑞利模型适用于油层物性较好且开采井段位于油层顶部的油井,在开采初期拟合效果较好,预测误差小于0.5%,开采晚期,由于受多种因素的影响,应用效果变差。

Relative density of crude oil changes with production time. Quan-titative forecasting of its change provides reliable theoretical foundation for oilfield production. The forecasting model of the relative density of crude oil with the production time was estab-lished by the Rayleigh model formula,and the model has been applied to forecast the oil density of Xin10 and Xin11 fault blocks of Dongxin Oilfield. Regression analysis was done then. The research indicates that Rayleigh model is fit for the wells with good physical properties and the exploited section lying on the reservoir top. The prediction of oil density conforms to the ac-tual development value with an error less than 0. 5% in the early development period. But the application effect becomes poor in later development period for many influencing factors.