我国国际收支双顺差的影响、原因及对策研究

The Impact and the Cause of Double Favorable Balance of Payments in China and Its Countermeasures

强制性的银行结售汇制及事实上的固定汇率制度,使20世纪90年代中期以来我国国际收支双顺差直接引发了外汇储备激增及流动性过剩问题。而后者对我国当前的投资、物价以及房地产和股市产生不利影响。持续的国际收支双顺差与我国多年来实行不当的出口退税政策、人民币汇率政策及直接利用外资政策等一系列国际收支政策密切相关。为从根本上解决上述问题,具体政策调整应从出口退税率、汇率决定机制及对外国直接投资的限制三方面入手。

Mandatory bank settlement system and the de facto fixed exchange rate system has made China＇s double favorable balance of payments have directly brought about the problems of a sharp increase of foreign exchange reserves and excess liquidity since the mid- 1990s, the latter has made an adverse impact on China＇s current investment, price, real estate and stock market. Sustained double favorable balance of payments are closely related to a series of international revenue and expenditure policies implemented in China for many years such as the improper export tax rebate policy, the RMB exchange rate policy and the direct use of foreign investment policy. In order to fundamentally solve the above problems, the specific policies should be to adjust export tax rebate rate, the decision-making mechanism of exchange rate and the restrictions of foreign direct investment.