哈尔滨大用水户水量动态预测模型研究

Research on Dynamic Forecasting of Customer's Water Demand in Harbin

城市供水管网系统优化问题中,与水量相关的问题主要有三方面:一方面是城市用水量预测问题,一方面是用水量变化规律问题,另一方面是节点流量的问题。城市用水量预测对于城市给水系统规划设计或对运行研究有巨大的意义,因此对其有一个事先估计,是供水系统发展与运行研究的重要内容。而用户水量变化规律,主要指大用户的用水量变化规律在给水管网系统建模中起着重大作用。它是计算节点流量的主要依据,对于管网模型的准确性影响巨大。本文结合《哈尔滨市供水管网数字化管理与优化分析系统》工程中的相关内容,以哈尔滨市供排水集团提供的哈尔滨市给水管网基础信息为数据来源。对项目开展过程中,需要的哈尔滨市大用户用水量变化规律进行了收集,整理和预测工作。

In the optimization of the urban water network, there are three problems with the water quantity, one is the forecasting of the urban water demand. One is the changing rule of the water quantity. Another is the node quantity. The former is very important to the plan of the water supply and to operating of the water supply company. So if we can do a forecasting ahead is a good developing direction to the water supply system. And the water demand changing rule of urban city, especially the big customer＇s water demand changing rule is very important. It is the chief factor to calculate to quantity of the node. It has great effluence to the accuracy of the modeling. This paper based on the projection of the Digital management of Harbin water network and optimization system. The data that needed to develop a good model is collected by Harbin institute of technology and Harbin water supply and drainage company.