美元贬值趋势及崩溃风险探讨

On U.S. Dollar Depreciation and Risk of Collapse

本文从一个长周期的视角剖析美元积弱多年的原因及未来的发展前景,预计2008年内美元兑主要货币将维持弱势,但有机会在年底触底反弹,唯美元兑人民币汇率已成为中美之间发展全面经贸关系的战略性问题,已不完全由市场因素决定,估计人民币仍面对加速升值的较大压力。

This paper examines the reasons for the downtrend of the Dollar since 2002, as well as Dollar＇s outlook in the coming year. By a number of factors, the author believes the downward spiral of the Dollar is unlikely to be reversed in the short term; yet, the risk of a full-blown dollar crisis is not to be significant. It must be aware that the RMB/USD exchange rate issue has become a crucial strategy for overall Sino-U.S, economic relationship, and hence does not simply mirror the difference of economic fundamentals. The US govemment would like to see the RMB trend higher in a more aggressive fashion.