东亚外汇储备库的收益:理论和实证分析

Gains from East Asian Foreign Exchange Pool: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

本文的研究主题是东亚货币合作背景下的外汇储备管理。文章运用俱乐部理论对东亚外汇储备库给各经济体带来的收益进行了理论和实证分析,得出了两个主要结论:一是在危机前、危机期间和危机后三个时期内,危机期间外汇储备库带来的收益是最显著的;二是东亚部分储备库带来的收益大于100%储备库,这些结论为东亚外汇储备库的建立提供了理论和现实依据。文章最后提出了东亚发展外汇储备库的政策建议。

This paper examines reserve management in the broader context of monetary cooperation in East Asia. It first investigates the gains to be reaped if the East Asian economies were to pool their reserves, drawing two conclusions： East Asian economies could reap the largest gains from reserve pooling in the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis and postcrisis periods; the gains from partial reserve pooling are larger than full reserve pooling. These conclusions provide theoretical and practical support for the East Asian Reserve Pool. The paper finally raises policy recommendation for the development of East Asian Foreign Exchange Pool.