相关技术微分动力模型及定性分析

A DIFFERENTIAL DYNAMIC MODEL FOR ANALYSING DEVELOPMENT OF INTERACTED TECHNOLOGIES AND ITS QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS

本文建立了由两个相关技术组成的技术系统的微分动力模型。用微分方程定性理论讨论了系统的平衡点及系统在平衡点处的稳定性。在相平面和时间图上给出了几种典型的技术发展模式。

System of technologies can be characterized by their technical interaction among the components of the systems. The interaction has a significant effect on technological development.In this paper, a quantitative model for analysing systems of interacted technologies is proposed. The model is composed of two coupled nonlinear differential equations. The qualitative theory of differential equations is used to analyse the equilibrium points of the system and their stabilitiy.Some typical processes of technological development are given. The results show that the interaction among technologies has an important effect on the behavior of the system of technologies. This effect should be considered in decision making of technological development.